The Impact of Trump's Visit to China on the Global Office Furniture Market

Trump’s visit to China in May 2026 is expected to have several key impacts: heightened expectations of tariff easing, a marginal recovery in China’s office furniture exports, a rebalancing of global supply chains, short-term disruptions to prices and market dynamics, and a long-term shift toward a “China plus diversification” model. This impact stems from the previous high-intensity trade war and the ice-breaking significance of this visit—beginning in September 2025, the U.S. imposed a 30% tariff on Chinese furniture, compounded by multiple rounds of escalations prior to that, resulting in effective tax rates exceeding 100% for certain categories. As the world’s largest exporter of office furniture, China relies on the U.S. as its single largest export market, accounting for approximately 23% of its total furniture exports, During Trump’s visit to China from May 13–15, 2026, with trade and economy as the core agenda, signals of tariff easing were sent, though tariffs were not immediately lifted, triggering a series of chain reactions in the global office furniture market.

The anticipated easing of tariffs has directly driven a marginal recovery in China’s office furniture exports. In the short term, relevant companies have suspended their plans to relocate overseas and are waiting to see if orders will return. The 16.4% year-on-year decline in China’s furniture exports to the U.S. in Q1 2026 is expected to ease. At the same time, cost pressures on U.S. importers have been alleviated, the trend of price increases in the end market has slowed, and the cost-effectiveness advantage of Chinese office furniture has been partially restored. At the global supply chain level, the “China + Southeast Asia” dual-track model has further solidified. Leveraging its industrial cluster advantages, China has attracted the return of high-end, custom, and lead-time-sensitive orders. with steel office furniture clusters in Foshan and Zhongshan, Guangdong, as well as in Zhejiang and Henan, benefiting directly. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia continues to handle standardized, low-margin orders intended to avoid tariffs. Production capacity in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand continues to expand, but constrained by issues such as incomplete industrial chains and rising costs, these regions struggle to establish a comprehensive competitive advantage. Ultimately, a tiered global supply system has emerged, with China producing high-value-added products and Southeast Asia handling basic mass production.

The import structure of the U.S. market has also been restructured accordingly. China’s share of the U.S. office furniture market has dropped from approximately 40% before tariffs to 25% in 2025, though it is expected to rebound to around 30% following the visit to China. while Vietnam’s share rises to 35%–40%, it faces shortcomings such as inconsistent quality, long lead times, and high hidden costs. Domestic U.S. production benefits only in high-end custom and small-batch products; with insufficient large-scale capacity and relatively high prices, it is difficult to achieve large-scale domestic substitution. In terms of prices and profits, the global office furniture market shows a moderate upward trend, with U.S. end-user office furniture prices rising by 12%–18% in 2025, with the growth rate potentially slowing to 5%–8% in the second half of 2026. Chinese companies will partially pass on and partially absorb tariff costs, with gross margins rebounding from 10%–15% in 2025 to 18%–22%. In contrast, Southeast Asian firms will see their profit margins compressed to 8%–12% due to low-price competition and rising costs.

Meanwhile, global demand for office furniture is rebounding alongside the restoration of market confidence. Corporate procurement budgets have stabilized, and deferred orders are gradually being released. Global office furniture demand growth is expected to rise from 1.5% to 3%–4% in 2026, with regional performance diverging: North America is experiencing a moderate recovery, Europe is seeing steady growth, and the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) is rising rapidly. In response to these market shifts, various players across the industry chain are adjusting their strategies. As the primary beneficiaries, Chinese companies are accelerating order intake, optimizing pricing, and securing clients in the short term, with a focus on expanding into the mid-to-high-end markets of North America, as well as Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. In the medium to long term, they plan to move toward high-end products (such as smart office solutions and ergonomic furniture) and brand development, while also establishing overseas manufacturing facilities in countries like Vietnam and Malaysia; U.S. importers and brands are implementing a “China + Southeast Asia” dual-sourcing model to reduce reliance on a single supply chain, while increasing procurement of high-end custom and smart products from China and expanding the scale of standard component purchases from Southeast Asia. Although Southeast Asian manufacturers have welcomed opportunities to take on low-to-mid-end orders and expand production capacity, they also face challenges such as insufficient supporting industrial chains, rising labor costs, and stricter environmental standards.

Looking ahead, the global office furniture market will exhibit a pattern of short-term recovery and long-term diversified balance. From 2026 to 2027, tariffs will remain in place at moderate levels but will not be eliminated. Chinese exports will continue to rebound, the dual-track supply chain model will further solidify, prices will rise moderately, and demand will steadily recover. After 2028, the global supply chain will achieve a diversified balance: China will focus on high value-added products and technological innovation, Southeast Asia will consolidate its advantages in basic manufacturing, and the U.S. domestic market will achieve limited substitution, forming a more stable global office furniture market landscape.